There is a tendency to think about impact in simple terms – money goes in, something happens, impact comes out.

But some of the most important climate work does not happen like that.

A policy idea can sit outside the mainstream for years before suddenly becoming politically possible. A community campaign can spend months building trust before an opportunity opens. Research that once struggled to get attention can become essential when the public conversation shifts. An organisation might spend years building relationships, expertise and credibility and then find itself perfectly placed to influence a decision that arrives with very little warning.

Change can look slow. Until it isn't.

This is one of the reasons we believe good climate philanthropy is about more than finding strong organisations. It is about understanding where change might be possible, what is needed to unlock it, and when funding can have disproportionate impact.
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Change doesn't happen in a straight line

In complex systems, there are often leverage points – places where a relatively small intervention can help produce a much larger shift.

Sometimes that is a particular policy decision. Other times it is a court case, a piece of research, an election commitment, a powerful community story or the emergence of a new coalition.

And sometimes years of work have already brought a system close to change.

The idea of a tipping point is useful here. Before one is reached, progress can be difficult to see. The conditions for change are accumulating – new evidence, stronger relationships, changing public attitudes, better alternatives, greater political pressure – but the visible outcome may remain much the same.

Then enough changes at once, momentum builds on itself, and what previously seemed unlikely becomes possible.

Of course, philanthropy cannot manufacture these moments on its own. But it can help ensure that the people doing the work are ready when they arrive.
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Knowing when to say ‘yes’

This is where strategy matters. At Groundswell, our grantmaking starts with due diligence, but it doesn't end there.

We want to understand the organisations we back – their leadership, their strategy, their track record and their connection to the communities or issues they work with.

But we also want to understand the landscape around them. Who else is working on this issue? How do their strategies intersect? Where are the gaps? Is this work duplicating something that already exists, or enabling something nobody else can? Has something changed that makes this intervention particularly valuable now?

That understanding doesn't come from a spreadsheet alone. It comes from relationships.

Groundswell stays close to people working across the climate movement – community leaders, First Nations organisations, campaigners, researchers, policy experts, lawyers, communicators and funders. Those relationships help us see how different pieces of work fit together and where new opportunities are emerging.

They also help us ask a question we think is particularly important: Why now?

Sometimes a trusted adviser will tell us: This is the moment. If this organisation has the resources now, there is a genuine opportunity to shift something.

At other times, the answer might be: Not yet.

Strategic funding is not about backing every good idea immediately. Timing can be part of what makes funding effective.
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Funding the groundwork as well as the breakthrough

There is another side to this.

If we only backed work when the tipping point was already visible, many of those moments would never arrive.

The organisations able to seize an opportunity tomorrow are often doing patient, less visible work today – building community trust, developing policy, collecting evidence, training leaders, strengthening alliances or changing the way an issue is understood.

This work can be difficult to measure in neat annual increments, but movements need it.

A breakthrough rarely belongs to a single organisation or campaign. It is usually built on years of work by many people, often using different strategies at the same time.

One group may be demonstrating what a solution looks like in practice. Another is making the economic case. Another is organising communities. Another is challenging harmful decisions through the courts. Another is helping shift public expectations about what governments and businesses should do.

The power is often in how those efforts reinforce one another.

That is why networks matter so much to the way we think about giving.

We are not simply looking for a collection of individually impressive projects. We are trying to understand the ecosystem they sit within and where additional funding could strengthen the whole.
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Philanthropy can take risks others can't

There is something particularly valuable about philanthropic funding in these moments – it can move differently.

Government funding is often tied to programs, timelines and predetermined outcomes. Commercial investment needs a financial return. Philanthropy can provide flexible funding for emerging ideas, advocacy, community organising and work whose impact may take years to become obvious.

That flexibility creates responsibility. It means asking not simply, ‘Is this good work?’, but ‘What could this funding unlock?’

Could it help a promising organisation act while a window is open? Give a community the resources to participate in a decision affecting them? Help an idea move from the margins into policy debate? Connect organisations whose combined influence is greater than either could achieve alone?

Sometimes the answer will be uncertain. Climate philanthropy operates in a world where no one can predict exactly which campaign, policy opportunity or intervention will succeed.

But uncertainty is not the same as guesswork.

The closer we are to the work, the stronger our relationships and the better our understanding of the wider landscape, the better the decisions we can make.
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Finding the moments that matter

There is no single formula for transformational change. Sometimes impact comes from years of steady work. Sometimes it comes from responding quickly to a sudden opportunity. Usually, it is both.

Our job at Groundswell is to bring together deep knowledge, trusted relationships and the judgement of our giving community to find and back those opportunities To support the groundwork before the breakthrough, to recognise when conditions are changing, and when the moment arrives, to help make sure the people capable of shifting what is possible have the resources to act.